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기후변화의 경고..인도·파키스탄 폭염 빈도 30배 잦아졌다

작성자 난창희 작성일22-05-26 23:36 조회2,346회 댓글1건

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(뉴델리=연합뉴스) 김영현 특파원 = 지구 온난화로 인해 인도와 파키스탄의 폭염 발생 빈도가 30배가량 잦아졌다는 연구 결과가 나왔다.

24일(현지시간) AFP통신 등 외신에 따르면 다국적 기후 연구단체인 WWA(World Weather Attribution)는 전날 이런 내용을 골자로 한 보고서를 발표했다.

연구자 중 한 명인 영국 임페리얼 칼리지 런던(ICL) 그랜섬 연구소의 프리데리케 오토는 온실가스 배출 등으로 인한 기후변화 이전에는 인도·파키스탄의 지난 3∼4월 '봄철 폭염' 같은 사건 발생 가능성이 약 3천 년에 한 번꼴이었는데 이제는 빈도가 100년에 한 번으로 짧아졌다고 말했다.

오토 등 연구진은 산업화 이전보다 기온이 1.2도 높아진 지구 온난화가 이런 상황을 유발했다고 설명했다.

오토는 "기후변화는 폭염과 관련해 진정한 '게임체인저(game changer)'"라며 "만약 지구의 기온이 산업화 이전보다 2.0도 더 높아진다면 폭염 빈도는 더 잦아질 것"이라고 경고했다.

지난 봄철 폭염 같은 날씨가 5년에 한 번꼴로 발생할 수 있다는 것이다.

연구진은 인도와 파키스탄의 지난 수십 년간 3∼4월 기온과 지구 온난화가 발생하지 않았을 때의 상황을 가정해 비교 분석했다.

앞서 영국 기상청도 최근 연구를 통해 기후변화 탓에 인도와 파키스탄이 기록적 폭염을 겪을 가능성이 100배 높아졌다고 밝힌 바 있다.

기상청은 인도와 파키스탄에서 2010년 4∼5월과 같은 기록적인 폭염이 찾아올 가능성은 312년에 한 번꼴이었지만 기후변화를 참작했을 때는 이 확률이 3.1년마다 한 번꼴로 높아진다고 설명했다.

비교 시점을 2010년 4∼5월의 평균 기온으로 잡았는데 이는 해당 지역에서 1900년 이후 평균 최고 기온을 기록한 시기이기 때문이다.

인도와 파키스탄 등 남아시아는 4월 중하순부터 여름이 시작되며 5월 기온이 최고 50도에 육박할 정도로 가장 높다. 6월부터는 남부부터 차례로 몬순 우기로 접어든다. 5월이 한여름에 해당하는 셈이다.

그런데 올해는 인도의 경우 3월 평균 최고기온이 33.1도로 1901년 기상 관측 이후 121년 만에 가장 높았다.

4월 평균 최고 기온도 35.1도로 기상 관측 이래 4번째로 높았다.

파키스탄에서는 4월에 이미 47도까지 오른 곳이 나왔다.

이런 폭염으로 인해 양국에서는 90명 이상이 숨진 것으로 집계됐다. 히말라야 빙하가 녹으면서 파키스탄 북부에서는 홍수가 발생하는 등 피해가 이어졌다.


http://news.v.daum.net/v/20220524155411799

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